In the weeks following the Democrats’ loss of their House majority in 2022, leaders in New York – the heart of the crisis – worked hard to shift responsibility away from themselves.
“Critics humorously remarked that if only they had shown such fierce determination prior to Election Day.”
This year, the same state party is taking on a new role – leading a complex yet mostly successful narrative that concludes with New York’s consistently troubled Democratic organization defeating Republican incumbents in the US House and contributing to a slowdown in GOP gains, which may influence a potential Washington trifecta in January.
While the House majority has not been fully defined, New York Democrats have significantly contributed to maintaining slim margins for the GOP in the House amidst an overall challenging year for the party nationwide. Donald Trump has been elected president once more, and Republicans have regained control of the Senate.
However, this has been eclipsed by the nation’s wider transition towards Trump and the rise of his MAGA movement, which resembles the multicultural, working-class alliance that Democrats long for.
New York performed similarly to other long-standing blue states at the highest level of the ballot. Vice President Kamala Harris significantly surpassed Trump, securing a victory by approximately 12 points. However, this margin was considerably smaller than Joe Biden’s 23-point win just four years prior, aligning with Hillary Clinton’s performance in 2016.
Trump expanded his support in regions of the state that had previously backed him, capitalized on a lack of enthusiasm among Democrats in liberal areas, and garnered the dissatisfaction of swing voters in parts of New York City and its suburbs. This strategy enabled him to become the first Republican to win Nassau County, Long Island, since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Trump’s rise in New York City
The outlook was equally discouraging for Democrats in New York City, as Trump outperformed his previous results in almost every neighborhood, ranging from the most liberal areas to more conventionally conservative regions in the outer boroughs. This trend was not merely coincidental. New York City Mayor Eric Adams, a centrist Democrat who criticized party liberals during his 2021 election campaign, saw his strongest support in many of these same locations.
Adams, who was recently charged with federal corruption, has experienced a significant decline in his approval ratings, reaching record lows. However, the negative response was not prompted by his critique of how the Biden administration managed border issues or his overt contempt for progressive activists.
According to Democratic strategist Alyssa Cass, “The issues Eric Adams is facing are not due to a dismissal of his beliefs; rather, they stem from widespread corruption and illegal activities. However, there remains a fondness for what he brings to the table.”
His strong stance against crime, which aligns more with Trump’s approach than Biden’s or Harris’s after she joined the race, continues to resonate positively. Although crime rates are decreasing both in the city and nationally, Republican City Council member Joe Borelli pointed out to CNN that statistics do not capture the entire picture.
“Borelli stated, ‘No matter what you say about the crime rate, the toothpaste is still behind glass,’ pointing to retailers such as Target and CVS that continue to store common products like shampoo, toothpaste, and deodorant behind protective barriers in their stores.”
The reaction against the Democrats was clear throughout the five boroughs.
In Brooklyn, the defeat of Democratic state Senator Iwen Chu by Republican contender Steve Chan was particularly hard for many within the party to accept. In 2022, Chu made history as the first Asian woman to be elected to the state Senate. However, Chan’s strong opposition to city proposals for a homeless shelter in the area, along with his open support for Trump, criticism of the “far left,” and a persistent narrative that crime is increasing despite a nationwide decline, enabled him to achieve a decisive victory in the general election.
After his election, Chan, a former police sergeant, expressed to CNN while walking through Bensonhurst that the key issues in his campaign were public safety and the economy.
“According to Chan, residents in South Brooklyn are frustrated, as are those in the Bronx. Throughout New York City, there has been a noticeable increase in voter support for Republicans, driven by concerns over quality of life. Financial struggles are also a factor, prompting many to voice their concerns loudly.”
Chan, who was born in Hong Kong, noted that the district’s significant immigrant community, consisting of Asian Americans, Latinos, and a portion of Eastern Europeans, perceives a distinction between themselves and newly arrived migrants.
Chan expressed, “As immigrants, my friends and I from this neighborhood comprehend the message Donald Trump is conveying. It feels somewhat disrespectful to be grouped together with the recent influx of migrants, especially considering the struggles of earlier immigrants who established their own lives. They recognize that President Trump is not referring to them.”
The discussion emerged throughout the city, particularly in its most varied neighborhoods. When NY1 inquired about Trump’s backing from Latino men and his growing appeal among Black male voters, Brooklyn-raised House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries indicated on Wednesday that he was not taken aback.
Jeffries remarked, “Many people have been experiencing economic hardship for years, particularly in various communities of color. We need to improve our efforts to change that economic situation.”
State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist who is set to compete against Adams in the upcoming mayoral primary, stated that the national leadership of the Democratic Party must experience pressure.
Mamdani expressed to CNN, “I believe Tuesday served as a referendum on the economy, particularly reflecting the views of working-class voters and working-class residents of New York. It is infuriating that the Democratic Party permitted Donald Trump, of all individuals, to position himself as the candidate who would enhance the affordability of life for Americans and restore peace globally.”
Despite the sadness and frustration expressed by Democrats in the city, similar to their counterparts nationwide, they continued to hold a strong position in the state Legislature. Additionally, the fiercely competitive US House races beyond New York City produced unexpectedly positive outcomes.
Democrats carve out a new direction in suburban areas.
In a pivotal Central New York area and its suburbs, Democratic candidates successfully secured three seats previously held by Republicans in the 2022 elections. Rep. Tom Suozzi’s win, following his special election victory last year to take over from Republican former Rep. George Santos, raises the total to four. Additionally, in the Hudson Valley, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan achieved reelection with a margin of over 13 points, a significant increase from his narrow win of just over one point two years prior, overwhelming a key Republican challenger.
Since 2021, Republicans have been gaining ground, particularly in suburban areas, following a significant surge that impacted local Democrats on Long Island. In 2022, they successfully flipped four House seats, prompting an intense crisis for certain Democratic leaders in the state.
The organization functioned under the influence of former Governor Andrew Cuomo for ten years until his resignation in 2021. Without his leadership, the party appeared to be directionless. Furthermore, in 2022, Democratic candidates seemed either unprepared or reluctant to tackle the widespread dissatisfaction concerning inflation, living costs, crime, immigration, and border security, despite multiple warning signs.
They incurred significant costs.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul, who is on the ballot for the first time after serving as Cuomo’s lieutenant governor in 2018, nearly lost to her Republican opponent, former Representative Lee Zeldin, by approximately 6 points. In contrast, Cuomo had a victory margin exceeding 23 points in the previous election. The Republican candidate he triumphed over, Marc Molinaro, was one of the GOP winners in the House races of 2022. As the current elections approached, discussions regarding a possible primary challenge to Hochul in 2026 began to surface.
This year, however, the Democratic party’s framework and its key allies – at least theoretically – succeeded in moving forward or momentarily putting aside previous ideological conflicts.
Hochul, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, and Jeffries initiated a coordinated campaign resembling those typically seen in battleground states, establishing around 40 offices in competitive districts and employing nearly 100 new personnel. This effort was part of a transformation of what the party described in a post-election memo as a “stagnant operation.”
Ryan, one of the few Democrats to successfully navigate challenging elections in the last three years, defeated GOP opponent Alison Esposito in his Hudson Valley constituency, even though he was viewed as one of the party’s more at-risk incumbents.
“The coordinated campaign in New York state made a significant difference for us, unlike the previous time,” Ryan told CNN. “Last time, we didn’t have anything like that. This time, we established six field offices, employed more than a dozen full-time organizers, included a campus organizer, and had a dedicated Latino constituency organizer. Much of our fieldwork and organizational efforts were evident.”
Ryan also offered a caution to Democrats as they return to the political landscape.
“Using terms such as moderate or progressive overlooks the essential issue, Ryan stated. It’s not about ideology; it’s fundamentally about identifying those who advocate for the public and those who support and empower the elites.”
The same type of politically neutral ideology that has supported Ryan also aided a newly established external organization named Battleground New York, created by a collaboration of labor and progressive groups. Its goal was to establish a significant grassroots campaign that the party itself had not initiated. The organization successfully raised over $11 million and secured victories in four out of five House elections in which it was involved.
“According to spokesperson Eric Koch, ‘Battleground is part of a broader Democratic framework that emerged from the challenges of 2022.’ He added, ‘We collaborated with allies at the state party, House Majority PAC, and others to establish a robust network that almost eliminated the unusual Republican contingent from 2022.'”
